Boko Haram plans to launch terrorist attacks in the south of Nigeria

Boko Haram are planning to launch terrorist attacks in the south of Nigeria, as security services struggle to contain the threat.There are growing indications that Boko Haram is likely to stage attacks in southern states such as Kwara, Ekiti, Edo, Ondo and Enugu before the end of the year," says Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa forecasting at Exclusive Analysis. 

"The group's expansion to the south is likely to increase the exposure of expatriates to high risk of kidnappings." For funds, Boko Haram might look to kidnap expatriates for ransom, she adds. "Agribusiness and commodities traders are likely to face severe risk of disruption to their supply chains in the event of ensuing sectarian violence".

But terrorism predictions, and their effect in setting off cycles of sectarian violence, are not an exact science and other analysts are unsure where the conflict will move to next. "There are certainly signs that 'Boko Haram' are moving further south - most apparent through the Kogi prison outbreak - but I think the important question that hasn't really been answered is who Boko Haram actually are," says Hannah Waddilove, Africa analyst at AKE Group, the security consultancy. 

"This makes it difficult to judge what sort of threat the group pose to the south."There is some sort of central leadership and valid concerns that links with Islamist groups across the Sahel may be increasing Boko Haram's capacity, but the group is also amorphous, made up of 'jihadists', political activists and criminals, or even other groups with local concerns that are using the 'Boko Haram' label to commit atrocities against other communities in their areas.

 One may assume that Boko Haram would not have as much local support to their cause in the south - and so be able to cause perhaps less disruption - but without having a clear idea of the identity of the group, or their true capacity, it is difficult to judge the threat they pose".

Boko Haram have killed around 1,500 people since 2009, as part of an assault on the government, Christianity, and the 'West'.

 Initially focused on the Nigerian security forces - in October, they killed several Nigerian soldiers in gunfights, bombings and targeted killings in the north-eastern town of Potiskum - but they have since torched and bombed schools, beer halls, churches, cars, radio towers and newspaper offices, as well as hitting a United Nations building in Abuja, the capital.

President Goodluck Jonathan thinks there are Boko Haram sympathisers at the highest levels of government. Security services claim to have killed 24 militants in the northern town of Maiduguri (Task Force spokersperson M.J. Smith, pictured), but officials admit they are now losing their grip in the face of an escalation in Boko Haram's attacks in terms of frequency, scale and sophistication.

Boko Haram seeks Islamic government, a long standing desire of some Muslim northerners unhappy at their exclusion from the country's political institutions. A holy war was even launched against Hausa rulers as far back as the 19th century. Much like the rest of Africa's colonised states, Nigeria's borders were a geographic catastrophe bereft of ethnic logic. Few Shariah principles have ever been included in the legal frameworks governing the country. When they were, after 1999, Christian minorities protested, fearing Islamisation. 2,000 people died in clashes at the turn of the millenium. Violence was worse in the middle belt of Nigeria where numbers were more equal.

Political tensions between northerners and the current government have been growing during Goodluck Jonathan's presidency, says Robert Borthwick, Senior Africa Analyst at Maplecroft, the risk analysis firm.

 The country attempts to keep such divides under control by alternating the presidency between a northern candidate and a southern one. But the previous president Yar'Adua, a Northerner, died in office, meaning the presidency returned to a Southerner after only three years. 

"There has been persistent speculation that Northern political elites have either given encouragement to Boko Haram in order to weaken the government or, at least, have not helped calm tensions in the North," says Mr Borthwick. "Whether or not this is true, this perception has contributed to regional tensions and mutual suspicion between Northern and Southern political elites".

Starting life as a 200-strong Taliban gang in a small camp near the Nigerian border, Boko Haram operated under a spiritual leader - Mohammed Yusuf - who said he wanted Sharia law to be established "through dialogue" rather than violence, and dissociated himself from early violence conducted by his disciples. But shootings and a spiral of tit-for-tat clashes with security forces, culminated in the execution of Yusuf in 2009.

The conflict goes beyond the group and their enemies in government. "Nigeria continues to be plagued by instability as the government struggles to cope with an array of challenges posed by Boko Haram, as well as ethnic tensions, popular anger over the fuel subsidy and rampant corruption," says Mr Borthwick.