Boko Haram are planning to launch
terrorist attacks in the south of Nigeria, as security services struggle
to contain the threat.There are growing indications that Boko Haram is likely to stage
attacks in southern states such as Kwara, Ekiti, Edo, Ondo and Enugu
before the end of the year," says Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa
forecasting at Exclusive Analysis.
"The group's expansion to the south
is likely to increase the exposure of expatriates to high risk of
kidnappings." For funds, Boko Haram might look to kidnap expatriates for
ransom, she adds. "Agribusiness and commodities traders are likely to
face severe risk of disruption to their supply chains in the event of
ensuing sectarian violence".
But terrorism predictions, and their effect in setting off cycles of
sectarian violence, are not an exact science and other analysts are
unsure where the conflict will move to next. "There are certainly signs
that 'Boko Haram' are moving further south - most apparent through the
Kogi prison outbreak - but I think the important question that hasn't
really been answered is who Boko Haram actually are," says Hannah
Waddilove, Africa analyst at AKE Group, the security consultancy.
"This
makes it difficult to judge what sort of threat the group pose to the
south."There is some sort of central leadership and valid concerns that
links with Islamist groups across the Sahel may be increasing Boko
Haram's capacity, but the group is also amorphous, made up of
'jihadists', political activists and criminals, or even other groups
with local concerns that are using the 'Boko Haram' label to commit
atrocities against other communities in their areas.
One may assume that
Boko Haram would not have as much local support to their cause in the
south - and so be able to cause perhaps less disruption - but without
having a clear idea of the identity of the group, or their true
capacity, it is difficult to judge the threat they pose".
Boko Haram have killed around 1,500 people since 2009, as part of an
assault on the government, Christianity, and the 'West'.
Initially
focused on the Nigerian security forces - in October, they killed
several Nigerian soldiers in gunfights, bombings and targeted killings
in the north-eastern town of Potiskum - but they have since torched and
bombed schools, beer halls, churches, cars, radio towers and newspaper
offices, as well as hitting a United Nations building in Abuja, the
capital.
President Goodluck Jonathan thinks there are Boko Haram sympathisers
at the highest levels of government. Security services claim to have
killed 24 militants in the northern town of Maiduguri (Task Force
spokersperson M.J. Smith, pictured), but officials admit they are now
losing their grip in the face of an escalation in Boko Haram's attacks
in terms of frequency, scale and sophistication.
Boko Haram seeks Islamic government, a long standing desire of some
Muslim northerners unhappy at their exclusion from the country's
political institutions. A holy war was even launched against Hausa
rulers as far back as the 19th century. Much like the rest of Africa's
colonised states, Nigeria's borders were a geographic catastrophe bereft
of ethnic logic. Few Shariah principles have ever been included in the
legal frameworks governing the country. When they were, after 1999,
Christian minorities protested, fearing Islamisation. 2,000 people died
in clashes at the turn of the millenium. Violence was worse in the
middle belt of Nigeria where numbers were more equal.
Political tensions between northerners and the current government
have been growing during Goodluck Jonathan's presidency, says Robert
Borthwick, Senior Africa Analyst at Maplecroft, the risk analysis firm.
The country attempts to keep such divides under control by alternating
the presidency between a northern candidate and a southern one. But the
previous president Yar'Adua, a Northerner, died in office, meaning the
presidency returned to a Southerner after only three years.
"There has
been persistent speculation that Northern political elites have either
given encouragement to Boko Haram in order to weaken the government or,
at least, have not helped calm tensions in the North," says Mr
Borthwick. "Whether or not this is true, this perception has contributed
to regional tensions and mutual suspicion between Northern and Southern
political elites".
Starting life as a 200-strong Taliban gang in a small camp near the
Nigerian border, Boko Haram operated under a spiritual leader - Mohammed
Yusuf - who said he wanted Sharia law to be established "through
dialogue" rather than violence, and dissociated himself from early
violence conducted by his disciples. But shootings and a spiral of
tit-for-tat clashes with security forces, culminated in the execution of
Yusuf in 2009.
The conflict goes beyond the group and their enemies in government.
"Nigeria continues to be plagued by instability as the government
struggles to cope with an array of challenges posed by Boko Haram, as
well as ethnic tensions, popular anger over the fuel subsidy and rampant
corruption," says Mr Borthwick.
